Commercial Desertification: The Vanishing Face of Brick-and-Mortar Retail and its Impact on Tax Revenue and Local Economies

In Italy, four shops vanished every hour over a three-month period

In recent years, the retail landscape has undergone a rapid shift from physical storefronts to online platforms. This trend has resulted in the disappearance of nearly ten thousand businesses from the retail sector in the first three months of 2024 alone. This equates to over four closures every hour as consumer preferences continue to favor online shopping.

The decline in brick-and-mortar retail is having a significant impact on local tax revenue. According to confessors, an industry association, online spending is set to rise by 13% in 2024, resulting in over 734 million shipments to customers. This represents almost 84 thousand parcel deliveries per hour. However, as more purchases move to international eCommerce platforms that may not pay taxes in the same country, local shops are losing out on valuable tax revenue.

Business closures and a decline in new business openings are contributing to the economic challenges faced by retail sectors nationwide. The total number of businesses serving communities has decreased by approximately 14.3% since 2012, while the number of deliveries for online purchases has grown almost tenfold in just over ten years.

The regions most affected by commercial desertification include Campania, Lombardy, and Lazio, with significant losses in the number of businesses. This trend is impacting the tax base for local authorities, with estimates indicating a loss of 5.2 billion euros in taxes over the last decade due to commercial closures. The reduction in shops has led to decreased revenue from various taxes, further straining the financial resources available to governments.

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