The soybean and corn harvest is currently behind schedule compared to previous seasons, but estimates are beginning to emerge regarding the volume and value of the grains produced. Despite this delay, there is good news for Javier Milei’s government as a notable productive improvement has been observed due to the end of the drought and a recent increase in international prices. According to a recent report by IERAL, the net income from the sale of agroindustrial products would be 49% higher than last year, reaching US$29.8 billion.
The report also details that soybean production estimates are converging in a range of 49-50 million tons, representing a 100% or more increase compared to the previous cycle. However, there is greater divergence in corn estimates, ranging from 46.5 million to 55 million tons. Cereal production is expected to be 35-45% higher than the previous cycle. The harvest has begun to pick up pace, although it continues to lag behind previous agricultural cycles, particularly soybeans.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 77% of soybeans planted had been harvested by the end of May with a delay of 12 percentage points compared to previous years. In contrast, only 28% of corn had been harvested with a lag of only 2%. Grain prices in the Chicago Market began recovering in May after being downward for much of the year. Soybean and corn prices returned almost entirely to their levels at the beginning of the year while wheat saw an increase in price due to increased demand from China and other Asian countries.
Officials reveal that until May 31st around 20% of grains had been sold at a fixed price which was lower than historical averages. Marketing activities are expected to accelerate over time as demand increases due to rising commodity prices and increasing global demand for food products. Based on projections by IERAL, gross and net exports of agroindustrial products are estimated at US$32.3 billion and US$29.8 billion respectively in 2024 with an improvement compared to last year’s figures
