Navigating Political Uncertainty: European Banks Face New Challenges as Election Looms and Trade Wars Intensify

European bankers are closely monitoring the political climate in Europe, particularly in Italy, Spain, and France. New taxes imposed on banks with higher profits in these countries have caused concern among investors. The rise of populism in France, especially with Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected announcement of parliamentary elections, has further unsettled markets.

The upcoming final round of the French election on July 7th is expected to empower either the hard left or hard right, leading to uncertainty in the banking sector. In an interview in May, Macron advocated for a more integrated banking market, but the recent drop in France’s government debt prices has reignited fears of the euro-zone crisis from the early 2010s.

The increasing volatility in European politics may drive banks to become more locally focused and less ambitious. However, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) stands out for its global presence, with a significant portion of its profits coming from Mexico and Turkey. BBVA also made a bold move in May by making a hostile takeover offer for the Spanish competitor Sabadell, demonstrating its confidence and ambition in the market.