The United States and the Philippines have been at odds over maritime disputes in the South China Sea for years, but a recent incident on June 17 has pushed tensions to new heights. Manila had previously avoided invoking a treaty with China due to past conflicts, but President Marcos addressed troops in the region, emphasizing that the Philippines did not want to start wars.
Despite wanting to de-escalate tensions, Manila feared that the incident could have led to armed conflict between the countries and even involved American forces. This fear was compounded by China’s response, which saw Manila’s caution as a victory and further pushed the limits of their “red line.”
China’s actions were seen as a non-kinetic use of illegal force by American military-legal terms, despite there being no clear definition for the term “armed attack” within the treaty. This uncertainty about providing stronger support to the Philippines without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty has caused tension between the two countries.
The incident on June 17 provided important information about both countries’ reluctance to escalate tensions and their differing capabilities in escalation tactics. Just a week after the altercation, China deployed its largest coast guard vessel near the Sierra Madre outpost, demonstrating its dominance in maritime disputes.
