The South Caucasus region is experiencing a shift in power, with Azerbaijan gaining more independence and Armenia moving away from Moscow. Georgia, on the other hand, is struggling to determine its geopolitical orientation. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has viewed these countries as satellites and has not fully recognized their statehood. Conflicts such as the tensions between Georgia and its regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, have marred the region.
Russia has played a significant role in these conflicts, supporting different sides and presenting itself as a peacekeeper. However, recent developments have seen Azerbaijan gaining military strength with the support of Turkey, leading to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through military force. This has reduced Russia’s influence in the region and shifted its focus to economic partnerships, especially with Azerbaijan.
Armenia is feeling abandoned by Russia and facing a precarious situation with potential threats from Azerbaijan. The country’s future ties with the West are uncertain as it faces challenges from within and powerful neighbors. In Georgia, debates over its geopolitical direction are intensifying as the ruling party faces opposition from those seeking closer ties with the West.
As Europe repositions itself in response to changing regional dynamics, opportunities to strengthen democracy and reduce Russian influence in the South Caucasus are emerging. Armenia and Georgia present avenues for European engagement and support for democratic forces. In light of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, it is crucial for Europe to pursue strategies that contain Russia and promote democracy in the region.
In conclusion, there are shifting power dynamics in the South Caucasus region due to increasing independence of Azerbaijan and movement away from Moscow by Armenia while Georgia struggles to determine its geopolitical orientation. As Europe repositions itself in response to changing regional dynamics opportunities are emerging for strengthening democracy and reducing Russian influence in this region through support of democratic forces
