The winds of war on the northern border are intensifying, and there are growing concerns about the impact on Israel’s strategic infrastructure. One of the primary targets expected to be hit by Hezbollah’s rockets, missiles, and UAVs is the gas rigs. Unlike other critical infrastructures, if these rigs shut down, it would not just harm Israel but also Egypt.
Egypt has been relying heavily on Israeli gas imports since 2020. Last year, Egypt imported 8.6 BCM of Israeli gas, with Israel consuming 13.1 BCM and the remaining 2.9 BCM going to Jordan. However, Egypt is facing a severe shortage of electricity due to poor activity in its natural gas field. In 2023, gas production reached a six-year low due to issues with sulfur saturation and corrosiveness that damaged production infrastructure in the Zohar natural gas field located in Egypt’s economic waters. Proven reserves have decreased significantly from approximately 1,000 BCM to around 350 BCM over time.
If an all-out war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, it is likely that there will be a complete halt in gas production from Israeli fields to protect them from potential missile attacks. This could have serious implications for Egypt as well since it heavily relies on gas imports from Israel to meet its energy needs. The shortage of gas in Egypt has already led to frequent power outages affecting the everyday lives of its citizens.
The Egyptian government has taken measures to address the electricity shortage by implementing daily electricity allowance plans and power outages; however, these measures have not been sufficient enough to meet growing energy demands in the country.
In case of a complete halt in gas exports from Israel, Egypt would face significant economic challenges potentially impacting key sectors such as petrochemical and textile industries.
Overall, tensions escalating in the region pose a serious threat to energy security for both Israel and Egypt. A disruption in gas supplies highlights how interconnected their economies are and how strategic planning is necessary to mitigate risks associated with conflicts in the region.
