Recently, at a conference in San Francisco, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the United States is not facing a recession. He emphasized that the economy is in a strong position and there is no evidence to suggest that a recession is imminent.
Over the past year and a half, the U.S. economy has exceeded expectations and managed to avoid the recession that many economists had predicted for the end of 2022. This has been described as a “soft landing” by experts, with inflation decreasing significantly without causing a severe economic downturn. In fact, the consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in February 2023, indicating that prices are coming under control.
Despite multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, the labor market has shown resilience. In February alone, 275,000 jobs were added to the economy, maintaining an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, which is one of the longest sub-4 percent streaks since the late 1960s. The Fed recently decided to keep the baseline interest rate steady at 5.25 to 5.5 percent, reaffirming its need for positive economic data before considering rate cuts.
While personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed a slight increase last month, Powell stated that this was within expectations
