The Mexican government has revised its estimates for crude oil production in 2024 and 2025, reducing the forecasted production platform. The new projection for 2024 implies a cut of 131 thousand barrels of crude oil per day, with a similar reduction in estimates for 2025. Despite these cuts, the agency foresees rising crude oil prices due to global factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Economic Policy Precriteria for 2025, released by the Secretariat of Treasury and Public Credit (SHCP), projects a production platform of one million 852 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and one million 863.1 thousand barrels per day in 2025. These estimates are lower than those in the previously approved Economic Package, which projected a production platform of one million 983 thousand barrels per day in 2024.
The agency attributes this reduction to global cuts in crude oil production, including those by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its associates (OPEC+). However, it also anticipates lower demand for crude oil, especially from China, which could impact prices. In addition to the revised production forecasts, the agency reported that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) increased its spending in the first two months of the year compared to the same period in 2023. However, spending in February saw a decrease in real terms compared to the previous year. Overall, the Mexican government is closely monitoring global oil market dynamics and adjusting its projections accordingly.
