According to Baseball Reference, the stat analysts are not optimistic about the Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs in 2024. They project the team to have only a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games, which is worse than the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. On the other hand, Fangraphs predict that the Yankees will win 88 games, which is the fourth-most in all of baseball. BetRivers Sportsbook is even more bullish on the Yankees, projecting them to win 91.5 games and have the third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650.
While Baseball Reference’s projections are based on their Simple Rating System, which calculates run differential and strength of schedule from the previous year’s prior 100 games, it does not take into account injuries, players, or variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty.
Despite these pessimistic projections, the Yankees have made significant offseason acquisitions such as Juan Soto. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, he has a chance to greatly improve their offense and turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.
